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2007 Essays - August

2007 ESSAY SERIES - "PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE - WHERE WE'VE BEEN, WHERE WE'RE GOING, AND A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE FUTURE."

     For the past several years the essay section has focused on specific technologies including digital television, "green" cars and radio frequency identification (RFID). This year the essays take a step back to look, very simply, not only at where we've been in terms of technological change, but where we may be heading in the years to come. Each month's essay will also include a vignette of one inventor/invention, a short profile of something you may be seeing or hearing more of in the years to come. The summer schedule is follows:

•  July - Where We've Been

•  August - Where We're Going

•  September - A Brief Introduction to the Future

August 2007 - Putting the Pieces Together: Technological Change - Where We're Going

"Today's young people will collectively determine whether civilization survives or not." (n1)

"The continuous unraveling of nature's mysteries and the expansion of technology raise the level on which life, with all its ups and downs, floats. Science and technology, however, depend for their effect on the complex, chaotic and resistant fabric of society . . . Overall progress is assured, but science and technology interwork with societal factors that determine their instantaneous utility and ultimate effect." (n2)

     Part I of the 2007 summer series began with a look at changes which have taken place over the last 70 or so years through some of the products and services most familiar to people in their daily lives: television and radio, computers and the internet, automobiles and air travel. These tangible outcomes of scientific research and technological development, however, "are made possible by a large enterprise mostly hidden from public view - fundamental and applied research, an intensively-trained workforce, and a national infrastructure that provides risk capital to support the nation's science and engineering innovation enterprise." (n3)

     This "enterprise" is now a global one, with problems - and solutions - able to come from within or beyond the borders of any one country. But as the pace of technological change continues to accelerate, what does it mean for the future in general and for the U.S? A recent report from the the National Academies refers to the situation in the U.S. as a "disturbing mosaic." (n4) Portions of that report, entitled "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future," will be discussed extensively throughout this month's essay. The full report is available online in a pdf version at http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11463#toc.

A Changing World

     In 2006, the world gained about 2.4 people per second. (n5) How this growth translates on a daily, monthly and yearly basis is outlined in the chart below. By the year 2020, the total world population is projected to rise to about 7.6 billion people (from 6.6 billion in 2007). Although the rate of growth is projected to decrease by almost half between now and the year 2050, the earth's population in 2050 is expected to be nearly 9.5 billion people. (n6)

     In addition, during that same period the percentage of the world's population living in developed countries is expected to continue to decrease. In 2050 it is estimated that nearly 87% of the world's population will live in less developed countries. (The "less developed" countries include all of Africa, all of Asia except Japan, the Transcaucasian and Central Asian republics of the New Independent States, all of Latin America and the Caribbean, and all of Oceania except Australia and New Zealand. This category matches the "less developed country" classification employed by the U.N.) (n7)

     What does this mean? It means that in the years to come increasing demands for fuel, power, water and other resources will be seen throughout the world, but especially in rapidly-developing countries such as India and China. For example, global energy consumption (of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and other energy sources) is projected to increase by about 72% between 1990 and 2020. In the United States, consumption is expected to increase to a slightly lesser degree, 48%. In developing Asia, however, consumption is expected to increase by over 300% by 2020. (n8)

     In an age in which peak oil production has passed or is about to pass (see the 2005 "Green Cars" essays in the Essay Archives), finding sufficient supplies of clean energy, plus mitigating the environmental- and climate-related effects of increased energy use will be a major challenge. This is particularly true in countries such as India and China. (n9) But issues go far beyond population and resource usage concerns as more and more nations become fully integrated into the global economy and trading system. The issues also become ones of how nations and economies compete, particularly based on developments in science and technology. Where will the industries of tomorrow come from? Who will fund the science and develop the technology and innovations which most adequately address today's problems and create value in the future? Where will the workers who populate those industries come from, and how will they be educated? This will be the focus of the remainder of the essay, with a particular emphasis on implications for the United States.

"Storm" Clouds on the Horizon?

     This year a report of the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (available at www.ipcc.ch) received considerable attention in the press for its pronouncements and recommendations concerning climate change. Some technologies and practices which have been mentioned as being available by the year 2030 to assist in mitigating climate change and/or pollution include: carbon capture and storage (see the 2005 "Green Cars" essays in the Essay Archives section), advanced renewable energies (including tidal and wave energy), new solar concentrators/cells, higher-efficiency aircraft, advanced hybrids and electic vehicles with better batteries, improvements in crop yields in agriculture, and biocovers/biofilters, among others. (n10) When it comes to the leading industries of the mid-21st century, will these take their place among those in communications, information technology, biotechnology/health care and other areas as cutting edge market forces? Will it be the U.S. innovating and developing companies in these areas, or will other countries be taking the lead? These are the types of concerns directly and indirectly addressed in the "Gathering Storm" report mentioned earlier.

     The full title of the report is "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future." It was published this year by the Committee on Prospering in the 21st Century of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine. The report concludes that "Without a renewed effort to bolster the foundations of our competitiveness [in the U.S.], we can expect to lose our privleged position [in science and technology]. For the first time in generations, the nation's children could face poorer prospects than their parents and grandparents did. We owe our current prosperity, security and good health to investments of past generations, and we are obliged to renew those commitments in education, research and innovation policies to ensure that the American people continue to benefit from the remarkable opportunities provided by the rapid development of the global economy and its not inconsiderable underpinning in science and technology." (n11)

Photograph "Exterior Wall Panel with 5 Compact Fluorescent Bulbs" © 2007 Dorothy A. Birsic

     The report goes on to cite what is referred to as a "disturbing mosaic" in the U.S. The country, the report claims, is "facing problems that are developing slowly but surely, each like a tile in a mosaic. None by itself seems sufficient to provoke action. But the collection of problems reveals a disturbing picture - a recurring pattern of abundant short-term thinking and insufficient long-term investment" (n12) that "threatens the foundation of U.S. technological strength" (n13) and the country's ability to compete in the global economy of the mid-21st century.

     Several indicators, or areas of concern, are categorized within the report. These include flaws in the K-12 educational system, competitive weakenesses, and a higher education system in which, among other things, "34% of the doctoral degrees in natural sciences and 56% of engineering PhDs in the United States are awarded to foreign-born students." (n14) Similar messages have been echoed in recent reports from the Electronics Industries Alliance and the Council on Competitiveness as well. (n15) Although none of the reports point to any one single cause for concern, there is one general point on which all seem certain. "There is widespread agreement that one necessary condition for ensuring future economic success and a sustained high standard of living for our citizens is an education system that provides each of them with a solid grounding in math and science and prepares students to succeed in science and engineering careers." (n16)

     Also of concern as mid-century approaches is the aging population in many Western developed countries as compared with the relative youth of many countries in the developing world. The table below (n17) compares the percentages of the population aged under 15 and 65 and over in several developed and developing countries as projected for the year 2010. The report cites similar numbers as being significant in understanding where tomorrow's workforce may come from and the "major economic implications" (n18) of population dynamics.

Moving on to the Future

     "Since World War II, the United States has led the world in science and technology, and our significant investment in research and education has translated into benefits from security to health care and from economic competitiveness to the creation of jobs. As we enter the 21st century, however, our leadership is being challenged. Several nations have faster growing economies, and they are investing an increasing percentage of their resources in science and technology. As they make innovation-based development a central economic strategy, we will face profoundly more formidable competition as well as more opportunities for collaboration. Our nation's lead will continue to narrow, and in some areas other nations might overtake us. How we respond to the challenges will affect our prosperity and security in the coming decades." (n19)

     Looking back at some of the changes noted in the first part of this three-part series, it is clear just how fast the pace of technological change can be. The internet is perhaps one of the best examples of this change. Prior to 1995, few people had internet connections in their homes or knew what it meant to "surf" the web. Ten years later, internet connections are found in about 60 percent of all U.S. households, and in OECD countries alone (in 1995) there were 265 million active subscribers to fixed internet connections. (n20) In January 2006, almost 400 million hosts were connected globally, an increase of more than 77 million over the previous year. (n21) Also, as described by what has come to be known as Moore's Law, computing power doubles about every 18 months, and it has been estimated that the ability to identify and use genetic information doubles every 12 to 24 months. (n22)

     This exponential rate of scientific and technological change in some areas brings with it questions of how individuals, societies and governments best absorb and adapt to that change. The "Gathering Storm" report offers a number of suggestions - many of which are in the process of being implemented. Still, it may be possible to say that "the greatest demand in the future will not be for coal, oil or natural gas; it will be for the time we need to adapt our laws, behaviors and technologies to the new requirements" (n23) of the 21st Century.

Thank you for vising the Essays page this month. The August inventor vignette is included below. Please come back again in September for the final essay of 2007!

FOOTNOTES - The following are the footnotes indicated in the text in parentheses with the letter "n" and a number. If you click the asterisk at the end of the footnote, it will take you back to the paragraph in which the citation was located.

n1 - Martin, James, "The 17 Great Challenges of the 21st Century," The Futurist, Vol. 41, No. 1, January-February 2007, p. 24 (*)

n2 - Lucky, Robert W., "What Technology Alone Cannot Do," Scientific American, Vol. 273, No. 3, September 1995, p. 205 (*)

n3 - Committee for Prospering in the 21st Century: An Agenda for American Science and Technology, Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and The Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press. Please note: in the preparation of this study, two versions of the report were used. Both citations will be included here, and the other notes concerning the study will indicate page numbers for the information cited as found in both versions.
Version 1: Pre-publication Version, February 2006 Edition, as found in U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Science, Technology and Global Competitiveness, 109th Congress, 1st Session, October 20, 2005, Serial No. 109-27, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2005, p. 128
Version 2: On-line 2007 pdf version available at http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11463#toc, Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2007, p. 42 - 43, viewed July/August 2007 (*)

n4 - Ibid., pre-publication version p. 113, on-line pdf version p. 23 (*)

n5 - U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007 (126th Edition), Washington D.C.: 2007, p. 831 (*)

n6 - Ibid., Table 1305, p. 832 (*)

n7 - Ibid., Table 1307, p. 832 (*)

n8 - Ibid., Table 1354, p. 859 (*)

n9 - Cetron, Marvin J. and Davies, Owen, "The Dragon vs. the Tiger: China and India Reshape the Global Economy," The Futurist, Vol. 40, No. 4, July-August 2006, p. 41 (*)

n10 - Hopkin, Michael, "Climate Panel Offers Grounds for Optimism," Nature, Vol. 447, Issue 7141, 10 May 2007, p. 121 (*)

n11 - Rising Above the Gathering Storm, pre-publication version p. 104, on-line pdf version p. 13 (*)

n12 - Ibid., pre-publication version p. 114, on-line pdf version p. 25 (*)

n13 - Ibid., pre-publication version p. 284, on-line pdf version p. 214 (*)

n14 - Ibid., pre-publication version p. 106, on-line pdf version p. 16 (*)

n15 - Gordon, Bart, "U.S. Competitiveness: The Education Imperative," Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXIII, No. 3, Spring 2007, p. 31 (*)

n16 - Ibid. (*)

n17 - U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2002 (122nd Edition), Table No. 1309, Washington D.C.: 2002, p. 827 (*)

n18 - Rising Above the Gathering Storm, pre-publication version p. 281, on-line pdf version p. 212 (*)

n19 - Ibid., pre-publication version p. 275, on-line pdf version p. 204 (*)

n20 - OECD, OECD Communications Outlook 2007, Paris: OECD, 2007, p. 129 (*)

n21 - Ibid, p. 130 (*)

n22 - Bell, James John, "Exploring the Singularity," The Futurist, May-June 2003, p. 20 (*)

n23 - Von Lersner, Heinrich, "Outline for an Ecological Economy," Scientific American, Vol. 273, No. 3, September 1995, p. 188 (*)

CHART SOURCES - The following are the sources for the charts included in the August essay.

NET ADDITIONS TO THE WORLD: 2006 - Adapted from: U.S. Census Bureau, "New Additions to the World: 2006," Figure 30.1, Statistical Abstract of the U.S.: 2007 (126th Edition), Washington D.C., 2007.

PERCENT OF WORLD POPULATION BY DEVELOPMENT STATUS - Data from: U.S. Census Bureau, "Table 1307: Population and Population Change, by Development Status - 1950 to 2050," Statistical Abstract of the U.S.: 2007 (126th Edition), Washington D.C., 2007, p. 832.

AGE DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTRY IN 2010 - Data from: U.S. Census Bureau, "Table 1309: Age Distribution by Country 2001 and 2010," Statistical Abstract of the U.S.: 2002 (122th Edition), Washington D.C., 2002, p. 827.

BIBLIOGRAPHY - The following is the combined bibliography for the essays and inventor vignette section.

Atkinson, Robert D., "Deep Competitiveness," Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXIII, No. 2, Winter 2007, pp. 69 - 75.

Bell, James John, "Exploring the Singularity," The Futurist, May-June 2003, pp. 18 - 24.

Cetron, Marvin J. and Davies, Owen, "The Dragon vs. The Tiger: China and India Reshape the Global Economy," The Futurist, Vol. 40, No. 4, July-August 2006, p. 41.

Committee for Prospering in the 21st Century: An Agenda for American Science and Technology, Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and The Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2007, viewed pdf online version at http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11463, July/August 2007.

Fairley, Peter, "China's Coal Future," Technology Review, Vol. 110, No. 1, January/February 2007, pp. 56 - 61.

Gordon, Bart, "U.S. Competitiveness: The Education Imperative," Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXIII, No. 3, Spring 2007, pp. 31 - 36.

Goldstein, Jerome, "Green Investing," In Business, Vol. 27, No. 6, November/December 2005, pp. 10 - 11.

Hira, Nadira A., "Idealab Reloaded," Fortune, Vol. 152, No. 5, September 5, 2005, pp. 143 - 146.

Hopkin, Michael, "Climate Panel Offers Grounds for Optimism," Nature, Vol. 447, Issue 1741, 10 May 2007, pp. 120 - 121.

"Interview with Tech Pioneer Energy Innovations", viewed 8/10/2007 at www.weforum.org/en/fp/TechPioneerEnergyInnovations/index.htm.

Lucky, Robert W., "What Technology Alone Cannot Do," Scientific American, Vol. 273, No. 3, September 1995, pp. 204-205.

Martin, James, "The 17 Great Challenges of the 21st Century," The Futurist, Vol. 41, No. 1, January-February 2007, pp. 20-24.

OECD, OECD Communications Outlook 2007, Paris: OECD, 2007.

U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2002 (122nd Edition), Washington DC: 2002.

U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007 (126nd Edition), Washington DC: 2007.

U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Science, Technology and Global Competitiveness, 109th Congress, 1st Session, October 20, 2005, Serial No. 109-27, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2005.

Von Lersner, Heinrich, "Outline for an Ecological Community," Scientific American, Vol. 273, No. 3, September 1995, p. 188.

World Economic Forum Technology Pioneers, viewed 8/10/2007 at www.weforum.org/en/about/Technology%20Pioneers/index.htm.

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