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2008 Essays - September

"PETROMORPHOSIS" PART III: AN "AF-FUEL-ENT" FUTURE?

"Cornomorphosis"

    * In 2008, crude oil and retail gas prices hit all-time highs. This year's essay series, "Petromorphosis," has taken a look at issues concerning gas prices and the future of petroleum and other energy sources, with a focus on fuels. The issues and the industry both are extremely complex - far beyond what can be covered in depth in a forum such as this one. What will be presented is a brief summary of basic ideas and topics, ones which hopefully will help illustrate and explain the current situation as it relates to your lives now and in the near future. Part I and II of the series are now in the Essay Archives.

    The essay is interactive in the sense that links are embedded within the text. The article can be read as is, or one can click on a link to read more about the subject at hand, then return to the essay. (Please note: The links are included for information purposes only. No guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the materials presented on the sites, although every effort has been made to search out reliable and respected sources of information.) Footnotes and a bibliography also will be included at the end for anyone wishing to learn more about the subject. A glossary link for energy-related terms is provided as a reference for use as needed. Click here to reach the glossary. *

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     Those who saw the Rose Parade this past January might remember American Honda's "Passport to the Future" float. On the float, a passenger truck emerged from a cloud of smoke transformed into a robot-piloted space vehicle "blasting off" into the future. While the shift underway toward alternative fuels and advanced vehicles may not be as dramatic, it does have the potential of transforming the U.S. transportation landscape in the years ahead. For the purpose of this final essay in the 2008 "Petromorphosis" series, a new word is being coined: affuelence. The term, combining the words "affluence" and "fuel," is meant to describe the state of having both an abundance of fuels and vehicles able to operate on those fuels, particularly for the purposes of decreasing carbon emissions/pollution and dependence on gasoline/imported oil. The question might then be asked, is the U.S. on a path to an "affuelent" future?

EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES

     For much of recent past, there has been a good deal of talk about moving to alternative or renewable fuels. Aside from a few demonstration cars, hybrids in the carpool lane, or "powered by natural gas" signs on buses, little has been visible to the general public outside the halls of academia or the walls of industry indicating such a move might be underway. That, however, is changing. Day by day, the signs of a transition are beginning to emerge. One can now drive down Santa Monica Boulevard in West Los Angeles and see the first hydrogen refueling facility in the area at the Shell station on the corner of Federal Avenue (below left). In Orange County, exiting the Anaheim Stadium on State College Boulevard places a person across the street from a public compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling facility in the Gas Company parking lot (below right, one of nearly 90 public CNG refueling sites in the state). But will the fuels which are available and emerging today be the same ones in use 10, 20, 50 or 100 years from now? Will one or more emerge which are, to paraphrase the American Petroleum Institute quote from last month's essay, more "reliable, versatile and cost-competitive" fuels than oil on a wider scale? Is there an objective way of measuring that value?

     In order for a fuel to be fully acceptable as an oil/petroleum substitute it must not only stand on its own merits, but also be able to compete in an infrastructure developed over the last hundred or so years primarily for a single fuel only -- gasoline. Comparisons are usually made on what is called a "well-to-wheels" basis, taking into account all aspects of the life cycle of the fuel, from its extraction, refining, transportation/distribution and sale to its use in a vehicle, plus eventual emissions. The brief flash animation found at www.energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline/oil_to_car.html provides a quick overview of all the components of this extraction/delivery system for oil and is accompanied by an "Oil to Car" pdf booklet.

     In comparison to gasoline, it is often said of alternative and renewable fuels that they have a higher or lower fossil energy input, or they emit fewer greenhouse gases. Several models exist for making such comparisons on a "well-to-wheels" basis. One of the most widely-used and recognized is a model called "GREET." "GREET," or "The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy use in Transportation" model was developed by Dr. Michael Wang of the Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research with support from the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). It is "an industry standard-setting total lifestyle model . . . that allows researchers to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations with a consistent methodology." (n1) When comparisons are made such as fossil energy inputs per unit of output or levels of reductions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that a model such as GREET was used in making the comparison. A brief explanation of GREET, as well as an example of its application for comparing ethanol to gasoline, can be found at www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/345.pdf.

     Using the GREET model and a specific set of assumptions (which are available at www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420f07035.htm), the values below were calculated for potential reduction in greenhouse gases for a variety of fuels. The numbers represent "an estimate for the percent change in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, relative to the petroleum fuel that is displaced, of a range of alternative and renewable fuels. The fuels are compared on an energy equivalent or BTU basis. Thus, for instance, for every BTU of gasoline which is replaced by corn ethanol, the total lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions that would have been produced from that BTU of gasoline would have been reduced by 21.8 percent." (n2)

Chart source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, "Emissions Facts: Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Expanded Renewable and Alternative Fuels Use," EPA 420-F-07-035, April 2007, p. 2.

     If these numbers were all that mattered, then a variety of alternatives to petroleum might already be in greater use. They are not, however. Many of the fuels listed in the chart are not more widely used because they are not technically or commercially viable at their current state of development or are subject to a variety of conditions still leaving them as less-than-perfect substitutes for gasoline.

CORN ETHANOL VS. SUGAR CANE ETHANOL AND CELLULOSIC ETHANOL

Corn Ethanol and the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

     The most widely-used biofuel in the world is ethanol. As a fuel or fuel additive, it has both drawbacks and advantages. In general, the disadvantages of ethanol include the fact that is lower in energy content per gallon than gasoline, is not shipped by pipeline since it readily mixes with any water which might seep into the system, is corrosive and in blends greater than about 10% must be used in specially equipped vehicles, and, especially in the case of corn ethanol, "is constrained by arable land availability. Competition with food production for land [can] drive possible increases in both ethanol and food prices," (n3) something which has already begun to happen in the U.S. (n4) As can be seen in part in the chart above, net benefits of ethanol use depend to a great extent on the type of feedstock and processes used to produce it.

     In the U.S., most of the ethanol produced is made from corn. In 2007, about 20% of the nation's total corn supply was used to produce the fuel, up from about 17% in 2006. (n5) In the period from 1997 - 2007, annual fuel ethanol production in this country rose from about 1.3 billion gallons to 6.5 billion gallons. (n6) This was due in part to both its inclusion as an oxygenate and MTBE substitute in gasoline as well as a legislated mandate for its use through the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS).

     The nation's Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) first became law as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, or EPAct. The RFS program "requires that increasing volumes of renewable fuel be blended into gasoline in the continental U.S. beginning in 2006." (n7) RFS provisions were amended with last year's passage of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. According to provisions of the 2007 law, the amount of renewable fuels required to be blended with gasoline in the U.S. is set to rise from four billion gallons in 2006 to 36 billion gallons annually in 2022. (n8)

     Provisions in the Act distiguish between "conventional biofuel," which is defined as renewable fuel that is ethanol derived from corn (starch), and "advanced biofuels." Advanced biofuel is defined in the 2007 Act as "renewable fuel, other than ethanol derived from corn starch, that has lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions . . . that are at least 50 percent less than baseline lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions," and includes ethanol derived from cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin, sugar, starch (other than corn starch) or a variety of waste materials, biomass-based diesel, biogas, butanol or other fuel derived from cellulosic biomass. Cellulosic biofuels derived from cellulose, hemicellulose or lignin are distinguished further from advanced biofuels in that they must have lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions that are at least 60 percent less than baseline lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. (n9)

     Recognizing both the importance of corn in the nation's food supply and constraints on arable land on which corn can be grown, "even proponents of corn ethanol say that its production levels cannot go much higher than around 15 billion gallons a year." (n10) The amount of conventional (corn) ethanol included in RFS provisions is set to increase gradually to 15 billion gallons per year in 2015, but then is capped at that level annually through the end of the mandated period in 2022. Advanced and cellulosic biofuels are projected to make up the difference in mandated amounts of renewable fuels to be used under the RFS, going from about 2 billion gallons in 2012 to 21 billion gallons in 2022, of which 16 billion gallons must come from cellulosic ethanol. These provisions are outlined in the chart below.

Cellulosic Ethanol and Beyond

     Cellulose is the main component of plant cell walls and is the most common organic compound on earth. However, it is much more difficult to break down cellulose than starch and convert it into usable sugars for ethanol. Yet, making ethanol from cellulose dramatically expands the type of material, the geographic region [in which the] material [is] produced, and the amount of available material for ethanol production. At some point in the future, the material now regarded as wastes that require disposal, as well as corn stalks, rice straw sorghum stalks and wood chips or "energy crops" of fast-growing trees and grasses will be feedstocks. Cellulosic ethanol . . . ultimately will exponentially expand total ethanol supplies." (n11)

     Though no ethanol plants in the U.S. are currently producing the fuel in commercially viable volumes, great hope and confidence is being placed in cellulosic ethanol as playing a major role in renewable fuel supplies within the next ten years, particularly since "cellulosic ethanol yields roughly 80 percent more energy than is required to grow and convert it." (n12) In addition to the feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol being plentiful, it is estimated that "net CO2 emissions from ligno-cellulosic ethanol . . . can be close to 70% vs. gasoline, and could approach 100% if electricity co-generation [from production] displaces gas or coal-fired electricity." (n13)

     According to testimony from an executive of the Renewable Fuels Association, "there is not an ethanol biorefinery in production today that does not have a very aggressive cellulose ethanol research program." (n14) The organization also believes that "cellulose ethanol will be commercialized first by current producers [of ethanol] who have . . . cellulosic feedstocks at their grain-based facilities," (n15) and that the new fuel will augment rather than supplant corn-based ethanol. Others, however, see future biofuel production as taking a direction separate from food crops. Plants like "switchgrass, a fast-growing plant found throughout the Great Plains, and farmed poplar trees," (n16) have been cited as specific future sources of cellulosic ethanol. Also, facilities producing next-generation biofuels like biobutanol, green gasoline, designer hydrocarbons, and biodiesel fuels from genetically modified/engineered algae are slated to be in operation prior to 2015. (n17)

Sugar Cane Ethanol and Brazil

     The country of Brazil has built its ethanol industry around a single crop - sugar cane. The country produces about a quarter of the world's sugar cane, of which roughly 50% is used in the production of sugar and 50% in the production of ethanol. (n18)

     The production of ethanol from sugar "is energy efficient since the crop produces high yields per hectare and the sugar is relatively easy to extract. If bagasse [the crushed, juiceless remains of sugar cane as it comes from the mill] is used [burned] to provide the heat and power for the process, and ethanol and biodiesel are used for crop production and transport, the fossil energy needed for each ethanol energy unit can be very low compared with 60 - 80 % for ethanol from grains. As a consequence, sugar cane ethanol well-to-wheels CO2 emissions can be as much as 98% lower than with conventional gasoline. (n19) Overall, the cost of sugar cane ethanol can be more than 50% less than that of ethanol from corn, and it is cost competitive with gasoline at prices of $40 - $50/bbl oil. (n20)

     Brazil first began using and producing ethanol on a wide scale after the oil crisis of the early 1970s. A timeline posted in the "Biofuels Information" section of the Ministry of External Relations website describes the four phases of Brazil's ethanol industry which have taken place over the last three decades:

• Phase I: 1975 - 1979. Following the oil crisis of the early 1970s and a drop in sugar prices in international commo- dity markets, the Brazilian government formed the National Ethanol Program (ProAlcool) in 1975 with an eye on reducing the country's dependence on fossil fuels. (n21)

• Phase II: 1979 - 1989. The peak period for the government's National Ethanol Program. By the end of the 1980s, however, world oil prices dropped and sugar prices increased. Ethanol became scarce in Brazilian gasoline stations and undermined consumer confidence in fuel ethanol, so sales of cars fueled by ethanol plummeted. (n22)

• Phase III: 1989 - 2000. With ethanol supply disruptions, ProAlcool was discredited, and sales of ethanol-fueled cars dropped from 90% of all vehicles sold in Brazil in 1988 to less than 1 percent by the end of the 1990s. (n23) During this period the government began deregulating the country's entire fuel supply system, ended ethanol subsidies, and transferred decision-making and operations to the private sector, but also passed a law in 1993 requiring gas distributed at local gas stations contain 22% ethanol. (n24)

• Phase IV: 2000 - present. Since 2000, the ethanol industry has expanded productions and modernized, with flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs, see Part II of the summer essays) introduced in 2003. (n25) "The government estimates that flex-fuel vehicles account for more than three-quarters of new car sales in Brazil, [and] pure gasoline is no longer sold" in the country. (n26) [Brazil is also the second-largest oil producing country in South America, second only to Venezuela.] "The country has over 300 [ethanol] plants in operation, of which 80 licensed in 2005, and is expected to increase sugar cane production by 40% by 2009 as a part of a new national plan. (n27). Despite the size of the country's industry, less than 10% of cultivated croplands are used for growing sugar cane, compared with 20% for corn and nearly 35% for soybeans. (n28)

Case Studies

     Those interested in looking at specific ethanol-related case studies can find a report on the Brazilian sugar cane industry at the Sao Paulo Sugar Cane Agroindustry Union (UNICA) website, http://english.unica.com.br in publications of the "Multimedia" section. The report, entitled "Sugar Cane's Energy: Twelve Studies on Brazilian Sugar Cane Agribusiness and Its Sustainability," (2nd edition, 2007) covers a wide range of topics including the industry's environmental and socioeconomic impacts and the competitiveness of the industry.

     In the U.S., the state of Minnesota has more E-85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline, see Part II of the summer essays) refueling sites than any other state in the nation. This has come about in part through:

• State government ethanol standards and grants for the installation of E-85 pumps

• A coalition formed by the Minnesota Corn Growers, the American Lung Association of Minnesota and the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition to promote E-85 across the state

• Innovative marketing arrangements developed by ethanol producers through which E-85 is sold directly to gas stations, cutting out the oil company-owned middleman (n29)

     Though not available for download, a book entitled "High Octane: How Minnesota Led the Nation in Ethanol Development" has recently been released. Information about the book can be found through the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, www.mncorn.org, and more information about the coalition programs can be found at the American Lung Association of Minnesota, www.alamn.org, or the Twin Cities Clean Cities Coalition (TC4), www.cleanairchoice.org/cities/tc.cfm.

HYDROGEN

     If cellulose is the most common organic compound on earth, then hydrogen is its analogous chemical equivalent in that it is the most common element in the universe. Its potential can not be understated. Some envision a future with hydrogen not only as a transportation fuel source but also as the energy which will power the entire U.S. economy. Hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells and the transition to a hydrogen economy in the U.S. were discussed at length in the July 2005 and August 2005 essays, both available in the Essay Archives. A recap of hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells as a transportation fuel alternative, as well as an update of portions of the 2005 information, are included below.

Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

     Despite hydrogen's prevalence, its inherent properties have made it a challenge to adapt for use as a fuel in vehicles. Most of today's fuels are easily handled at room temperature. However, "because hydrogen is lightest element, far less of it can fit into a given volume than other fuels. At room temperature and pressure, hydrogen takes up roughly 3000 times as much space as gasoline containing the same amount of energy. (n30) As a result, this presents challenges not only in the transportation of hydrogen but also in the on-board storage for use in a hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen must be stored either "as a compressed gas (in high-pressure cylinders) or as a very low-temperature liquid at -253 degrees C (-423 degrees F) in a special insulated vessel, or in a hydrogen compound where the hydrogen is easily removed by applying heat." (n31) This can be a particular problem for automobiles since "tanks pressurized to 10,000 lbs per square inch take up eight times the volume of a current gas tank to store the same amount of fuel," (n32) and tanks for liquid hydrogen "may cost more than $3,000 - $4,000 per vehicle." (n33)

     Gram for gram hydrogen releases more energy than any other fuel. (n34) It is abundant, but unlike oil is it not a primary fuel source. Instead, it is "like electricity, an energy carrier that must be generated using another source of power." (n35) Hydrogen can be obtained from a number of sources including "fossil fuels (natural gas reforming, coal gasification), renewable and nuclear energy (biomass processes, photo-electrolysis, biological production, high-temperature water splitting), and electricity (water electrolysis)." (n36) Today most of the hydrogen produced comes "from fossil fuels without carbon capture and storage (48% from natural gas, 30% from refinery/chemical off-gases, 18% from coal, and the rest from electrolysis, . . . [primarily] for captive use in the chemical and refinery industries." (n37) The process of producing hydrogen from natural gas is only about 60% efficient (compared with 80% for gasoline refining) (n38), and in order to supply the entire transportation sector, significant imports of natural gas would be required." (n39) However, since fuel cells powering electric motors are much more efficient than gasoline-powered engines, their overall efficiency is about 10% better - and they also produce about 45% fewer greenhouse gases." (n40) Water is the only output on a car powered by a hydrogen fuel cell.

     Fuel cells are nothing like the internal combustion engines (ICE) powering today's vehicles. Fuel cells are "electrochemical devices that use hydrogen or hydrogen-rich fuels, together with oxygen, to produce electricity and heat." (n41) A fuel cell vehicle is essentially an electric vehicle powered by a device that operates like a refuelable battery. Unlike a battery, though, "a fuel cell does not store energy; it uses an electrochemical process to generate electricity and will run as long as hydrogen fuel and oxygen are fed into it." (n42) Perhaps the best way to visualize the difference in operation between ICE and fuel cell engines is to view animations of the two. Click on the left button below to go to a General Motors site carrying a flash animation of an internal combustion engine (then click "See Inside an Engine"). There is also a fuel cell information link. The two right buttons are fuel cell animations, one from the National Fuel Cell Research Center at the University of California, Irvine, and the other is a PBS site as linked from the California Fuel Cell Partnership site (www.cafcp.org). The National Fuel Cell Research Center link provides information in addition to an animation, and the PBS site shows various parts of a Honda FCX fuel cell vehicle.

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Hydrogen and California

     In April of 2004 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed an executive order creating the California Hydrogen Highway Network Initiative, the blueprint of which sets forth an agenda for building a hydrogen infrastructure for California. The plan is slated to be implemented in phases targeting both the number of hydrogen facilities to be established and a target number of hydrogen-powered vehicles to be served. In 2005 there were 16 working stations in the state, with 15 more planned. Today there are 26 stations in operation with 10 more planned. A map with a complete listing of sites is available at the California Fuel Cell Partnership (CAFCP) website, www.cafcp.org/fuel-vehl_map.html.

     The California Fuel Cell Partnership (www.cafcp.org) is a collaborative of automobile manufacturers, energy companies, fuel cell technology companies and government agencies. In July of this year the group released a document entitled "Vision for Rollout of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Stations." The report details a vision for the transition to early commercial markets for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the state. The full vision document in pdf format is available in the print materials section of the resource center at www.cafcp.org.

     In the report's conceptual overview of fuel cell vehicle commercialization, three stages are identified: Technology Introduction (now through about 2010), Pre-Commercial (approximately 2011 - 2013), and Early Commercial (approximately 2014 - 2016). In the first stage, the first "retail-like" stations (such as the one in West Los Angeles) are slated, with the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in operation in the hundreds (about 200 test/experimental vehicles are currently on the road in CA). The second stage would include technical refinement and early market penetration in both California and New York, and would include thousands of vehicles but still less than 100 stations. In the third stage of early commercial deployment, the vision is for hundreds of stations and tens of thousands of vehicles on the road.

     As great as the potential uses for and benefits of hydrogen can be, so can the cost. Early estimates by the oil company BP were that "given a modification cost of about $400,000 per site, the cost to them alone to modify all of their U.S. retail [locations] would be about $6.8 billion." (n43) The CAFCP July report states that depending on the type of station and technology used, a "rough estimate for capital costs [of a new station] is approximately $2 - 4 million," (n44) and that "the State of California should plan to spend $80 - 90 million over four years (2010 - 2014) for hydrogen fuel stations to support the pre-commercial vehicle phase." (n45) The report also states that since "the cost to transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is too high for industry to bear on its own, and given the public benefits, it is entirely appropriate and essential for government to support this transition . . . Local, state and federal government agencies will need to coordinate and integrate funding and other support programs to target investments and achieve the maximum benefit for the public funds invested in hydrogen stations and fuel cell vehicles." (n46)

Sign facing out to the street at the West Los Angeles Shell gas station/hydrogen refueling site.

Hydrogen Beyond California

     Two other reports have been published this year detailing the current state of hydrogen technology in this country. The first, "Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements," was released in March by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It is available at www-cta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/Reports/ORNL_TM_2008_30.pdf. Like the California report, it presents data for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV) penetration under three scenarios: two million HFCVs by 2025, five million HFCVs by 2025 and 10 million HFCVs on the road by 2025. Among the materials presented in the report are costs of fuel cell vehicles, which are projected to remain in the $50,000 range until about the year 2018, decreasing to about $25,000 - $30,000 by the year 2025 (none are currently available commercially). (n47) The report also concludes that, among other factors, "the government's peak annual cost for policy support [for the transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles] could range from one to six billion dollars, with cumulative costs of $10 - $45 billion over 14 years." (n48)

     The second report is the second biennial review of the progress of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Cell Partnership by the National Research Council. The FreedomCAR and Fuel Cell Research Partnership "is a major long-term research effort whose ultimate goal is to enable the full spectrum of light-duty passenger vehicle classes to operate completely free of petroleum and free of harmful emissions while sustaining the driving public's freedom of mobility and freedom of vehicle choice. The research is directed and supported by a collaboration among the U.S. government, in particular the Department of Energy (DOE); the U.S. Council for Automotive Research (USCAR), whose members are Chrysler LLC, the Ford Motor Company and General Motors Corporation; and five key energy companies: BP America, Chevron Corporation, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil Corporation and Shell Hydrogen (U.S.)." (n49) The focus of the report is more on specific technical evaluations of the current state of hydrogen vehicle and hydrogen production/delivery research and technology, along with crosscutting issues such as strategic planning, safety, technical validation and environmental considerations. It is available for download in pdf format at www.nap.edu/catalog/12113.html.

"Fill 'er Up" At Home?

     Although in the distant future, fuel cells in automobiles may one day bridge the gap between transportation and electricity generation through a "revolution in the garage." (n50) Since fuel cells "generate waste heat as well as electricity, . . . [the] waste heat can be captured and put to use." (n51) Eventually homes/garages may be equipped to convert this waste heat and direct it toward "space heating, water heating, steam generation and even air conditioning." (n52) The current pathway moving in this direction as envisioned by the FreedomCAR and Fuel Cell Partnership includes "starting with more fuel-efficient internal combustion engines and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), including plug-in HEVs (PHEVs), potential use of all-electric drive vehicles, and, ultimately, [the] addition of an infrastructure for supplying fuel for fuel-cell-powered vehicles." (n53)

     A different type of "revolutionary" garage-based system is now available for home refueling, but it is one based on natural gas. Personal filling station company Phill (www.myphill.com) has partnered with Honda and the company's natural gas Civic GX (www.civicgx.com) to offer in-home natural gas refueling stations in parts of Europe and the United States. The Phill unit mounts on a garage wall, taps into a home's natural gas line, connects to a vehicle and fills the car overnight (the flow rate is .42 gallon gasoline equivalent per hour), shutting off automatically when the tank is full. (n54) All that is needed is a utility-supplied natural gas line, a dedicated electrical outlet, and a qualified Phill installer (plus, of course, the Honda Civic GX). More information on this system is available at www.myphill.com.

On the Road to an Affuelent Future?

     In many advertisements this year, Chevrolet has been using the slogan "Gas-Friendly to Gas-Free," accompanied by five logos (usually from left to right or top to bottom) - one for fuel efficiency, followed by others for E-85 Ethanol, Hybrids, Electric Vehicles and (finally) Fuel Cells. Whether this will be the ultimate long-term choice or a one-way long-term progression remains to be seen. In the short term, consumers can continue to find gas saving tips, information on currently-available vehicles and more fuel-efficient cars at sites like www.fueleconomy.gov. Government and industry will continue to implement measures like increasing CAFE standards and improved vehicle materials and technologies which will continue leading down the path to decreased dependence on foreign oil imports. Though it can not be said with great certainty what fuel or fuels, and in what combination, will power transportation systems in 20, 50 or 100 years, it can be said that the process of "Petromorphosis" will continue leading to a transportation energy future which may be far different than the one we know today.

FOOTNOTES - The following are the footnotes indicated in the text in parentheses with the letter "n" and a number. If you click the asterisk at the end of the footnote, it will take you back to the paragraph where you left off.

n1 - U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Ethanol: The Complete Lifecycle Picture, Argonne, Illinois: Argonne National Laboratory, Technical Services Division, March 2007, p. 2. (*)

n2 - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Transportation and Air Quality, "Emission Facts: Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Expanded Renewable and Alternative Fuels Use," EPA 420-F-07-035, Washington D.C.: U.S. EPA, April 2007, pp. 1 - 2. Available online at www.epq.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420f07035.htm. (*)

n3 - International Energy Agency (IEA), "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Biofuel Production," Paris: OECD/IEA, January 2007, p. 3. Available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm. (*)

n4 - Rotman David, "The Price of Biofuels," Technology Review, Vol. 111, No. 1, January/February 2008, pp. 42 & 46, and "Ethanol Production," viewed at www.ethanolfacts.com, September 2008. (*)

n5 - Rotman, p. 46, and "Industry Statistics," Renewable Fuels Association website, viewed September 2008 at www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics. (*)

n6 - Renewable Fuels Association, "Industry Statistics," viewed September 2008 at www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics. (*)

n7 - Testimony of William Wehrum in Implementation of the Provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, on Electricity Reliability Provisions, Nuclear Power Provisions, Next Generation Nuclear Plant, and Renewable Fuel Standard and the Future Potential of Biofuels, May - June 2006, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2006, p. 135. (*)

n8 - Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, Public Law 110-140, 121 Stat. 1492 - 1801, December 19, 2007, p. 1522. (*)

n9 - Ibid., pp. 1519 - 1520. (*)

n10 - Rotman, p. 42. (*)

n11 - Implementation of the Provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, p. 152. (*)

n12 - Ratliff, Evan, "The Switchgrass Solution," Wired, Vol. 15, No. 10, October 2007, p. 160. (*)

n13 - IEA, "IEA Technology Essentials: Biofuel Production," p. 2. (*)

n14 - Testimony of Bob Dinneen in Biofuels for Energy Security and Transportation Act of 2007, hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, 110th Congress, First Session, S. 897, April 12, 2007, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2007, p. 27. (*)

n15 - Ibid. (*)

n16 - Ratliff, p. 160. (*)

n17 - Bogo, Jennifer, "The Shape of Fuels to Come," Popular Mechanics, Vol. 185, No. 9, September 2008, pp. 60 - 61. (*)

n18 - Sao Paulo Sugar Cane AgroIndustry Union (UNICA), Sugar Cane's Energy: Twelve Studies on Brazilian Sugar Cane Agribusiness and its Sustainability, 2nd Edition, Sao Paulo: UNICA, 2006/2007, p. 43. Full report available in multimedia section at http://english.unica.com.br. (*)

n19 - IEA, "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Biofuel Production," p. 2. (*)

n20 - Ibid. (*)

n21 - Brazil, Ministerio das Relacones Exteriores, "Information on Biofuels - Part II: The Use of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil," viewed September 2008 at www.mre.gov.br/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1818&Itemid=1374. Link to this also from www.brazilian-consulate.org/secom or Business and Trade section of www.brazilian-consulate.org. (*)

n22 - Ibid. (*)

n23 - International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, Paris: OECD/IEA, 2006, p. 476. (*)

n24 - Brazil, Ministerio das Relacoes Exteriories website, "Information on Biofuels." (*)

n25 - Ibid. (*)

n26 - IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 476. (*)

n27 - IEA, "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Biofuel Production," p. 3. (*)

n28 - IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 478. (*)

n29 - Statement of Klobuchar, Senator Amy, in Renewable Fuels Infrastructure, hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, hearing 110-169, 110th Congress, First Session, July 31, 2007, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2007, p. 8. (*)

n30 - Service, Robert, "The Hydrogen Backlash," Science, Vol. 305, 13 August 2004, p. 960. (*)

n31 - A Path to a Hydrogen Economy, hearings before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, 1st Session, Serial No. 108-4, March 5, 2003, p. 24. (*)

n32 - Service, p. 960. (*)

n33 - International Energy Agency (IEA), "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Hydrogen Production and Distribution," Paris: OECD/IEA, April 2007, p. 3. Available at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm. (*)

n34 - Vanderwerp, Dave, "Honda Proves It's Ready for a Hydrogen Economy. Now Where's the Hydrogen?" Car and Driver, Vol. 51, No. 1, July 2005, pp. 77, 80 and 81.(*)

n35 - National Research Council, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers and R&D Needs, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2004, p. 19. (*)

n36 - IEA, "IEA Technology Essentials: Hydrogen Production and Distribution," p. 1. (*)

n37 - Ibid. (*)

n38 - National Research Council, The Hydrogen Economy, p. 19. (*)

n39 - Reviewing the Hydrogen Fuel and FreedomCAR Initiatives, Hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, Second Session, Serial No. 108-44, March 3, 2004, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2004, p. 6. (*)

n40 - National Research Council, The Hydrogen Economy, p. 19. (*)

n41 - International Energy Agency (IEA), "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Fuel Cells," Paris: OECD/IEA, April 2007, p. 1. Available at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm. (*)

n42 - Ashley, Steven, "On the Road to Fuel Cell Cars," Scientific American, Vol. 292, No. 3, March 2005, p. 64. (*)

n43 - Testimony of Uhilein, James P. in Fuel Cells: The Key to Energy Independence?, Field Hearing, Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 107th Congress, Second Session, Serial No. 107-83, June 24, 2002, p. 17. (*)

n44 - California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP), Vision for Rollout of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Stations, West Sacramento: CaFCP, July 2008, p. 7. (*)

n45 - Ibid., p. 9. (*)

n46 - Ibid., p. 5. (*)

n47 - Greene, David L., Hooks, Matthew, Leiby, Paul N., James, Brian, Perez, Julie, Melendez, Margo, Mulbrandt, Anelia, and Unnasch, Stefan, Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirement, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) ORNL/TM-2008/30, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: ORNL/U.S. Department of Energy, March 2008, p. 16. (*)

n48 - Ibid., p. 25. (*)

n49 - National Research Council, Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Second Report, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2008, p. xi. Report available at www.nap.edu/catalog/12113.html. (*)

n50 - Evers, A.A., "Fueling Our Future: Setting the Stage for the Coming Hydrogen Economy," paper from Hydrogen: A Clean Energy Source. Conference Proceedings, National Hydrogen Association, 15th Annual U.S. Hydrogen Conference and Hydrogen Expo USA, April 26 - 30, 2004, Conference CD-ROM, p. 3 of 5. (*)

n51 - "Distributed Generation In Our Future," National Fuel Cell Research Center (NFCRC) Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, Winter 2003, p. 2. (*)

n52 - Ibid. (*)

n53 - National Research Council, Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership, Second Report, p. 18. (*)

n54 - Phill (by FuelMaker) company brochure, "Embrace the Power to Make Your Garage Your Own Personal Fueling Station," 2008, back cover. (*)

LINKS LIST - The following is a list of links external to the website found in the Part III essay.

BIBLIOGRAPHY - The following is a bibliography for Part III of the "Petromorphosis" series.

A Path to a Hydrogen Economy, Hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, 1st Session, Serial No. 108-4, March 5, 2003, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2003.

Ashley, Steven, "On the Road to Fuel Cell Cars," Scientific American, Vol. 292, No. 3, March 2005, pp. 62 - 69.

Biofuels for Energy Security and Transportation Act of 2007, hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, 110th Congress, First Session, S. 897, April 12, 2007, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2007.

Bogo, Jennifer, "The Shape of Fuels to Come," Popular Mechanics, Vol. 185, No. 9, September 2008, pp. 56 - 64.

Brazil, Ministerio das Relacones Exteriores, "Information on Biofuels - Part II: The Use of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil," viewed September 2008 at www.mre.gov.br/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1818&Itemid=1374. Link to this also from www.brazilian-consulate.org/secom or Business and Trade section of www.brazilian-consulate.org.

California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP), Vision for Rollout of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Stations, West Sacramento: CaFCP, July 2008.

Cannon, James S. and Sperling, Daniel, The Hydrogen Energy Transition: Moving Toward the Post Petroleum Age in Transportation. Burlington, MA, San Diego, CA and London: Elsevier Academic Press, 2004.

"Distributed Generation In Our Future," National Fuel Cell Research Center (NFCRC) Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, Winter 2003, pp. 1 - 2.

Ending Our Addicition to Oil: Are Advanced Vehicles and Fuels the Answer? Field hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, June 5, 2006, Serial No. 109-52, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2006.

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, Public Law 110-140, 121 Stat. 1492 - 1801, December 19, 2007.

Evers, A.A., "Fueling Our Future: Setting the Stage for the Coming Hydrogen Economy," paper from Hydrogen: A Clean Energy Source. Conference Proceedings, National Hydrogen Association, 15th Annual U.S. Hydrogen Conference and Hydrogen Expo USA, April 26 - 30, 2004, Conference CD-ROM.

Fuel Cells: The Key to Energy Independence?, Field Hearing, Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 107th Congress, Second Session, Serial No. 107-83, June 24, 2002, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2002.

The Gas Company/Sempra Energy, Southern California Natural Gas Refueling Center, map and station list, September 2007.

Greene, David L., Hooks, Matthew, Leiby, Paul N., James, Brian, Perez, Julie, Melendez, Margo, Mulbrandt, Anelia, and Unnasch, Stefan, Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirement, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) ORNL/TM-2008/30, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: ORNL/U.S. Department of Energy, March 2008.

Implementation of the Provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, on Electricity Reliability Provisions, Nuclear Power Provisions, Next Generation Nuclear Plant, and Renewable Fuel Standard and the Future Potential of Biofuels, May - June 2006, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2006.

International Energy Agency (IEA), "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Biofuel Production," Paris: OECD/IEA, January 2007. Available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm.

International Energy Agency, "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Fuel Cells," Paris: OECD/IEA, April 2007. Available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm.

International Energy Agency, "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Hydrogen Production and Distribution," Paris: OECD/IEA, April 2007. Available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/essentials.htm.

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, Paris: OECD/IEA, 2006.

Lee, Sunggyu, Alternative Fuels. Washington D.C.: Taylor and Francis, 1996.

Meckler, Laura, "Fill Up With Ethanol? One Obstacle is Big Oil; Rules Keep a Key Fuel Out of Some Stations, Car Makers Push Back," Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2007, p. A1.

National Research Council, Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Second Report, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2008. Report available at www.nap.edu/catalog/12113.html.

National Research Council, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers and R&D Needs, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2004.

Phill (by FuelMaker) company brochure, "Embrace the Power to Make Your Garage Your Own Personal Fueling Station," 2008.

The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Act of 2006, (Discussion Draft), hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, May 17, 2006, Serial No. 109-50, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2006.

Ratliff, Evan, "The Switchgrass Solution," Wired, Vol. 15, No. 10, October 2007, pp. 158 - 171.

Renewable Fuels Association, "Industry Statistics," viewed September 2008 at www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics.

Renewable Fuels Infrastructure, hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, hearing 110-169, 110th Congress, First Session, July 31, 2007, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2007.

Reviewing the Hydrogen Fuel and FreedomCAR Initiatives, Hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, Second Session, Serial No. 108-44, March 3, 2004, Washington D.C.: U.S. GPO, 2004.

Rotman David, "The Price of Biofuels," Technology Review, Vol. 111, No. 1, January/February 2008, pp. 42 - 51.

Service, Robert, "The Hydrogen Backlash," Science, Vol. 305, 13 August 2004, pp. 958 - 961.

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