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2007 Essays - September 2007 ESSAY SERIES - "PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE - WHERE WE'VE BEEN, WHERE WE'RE GOING, AND A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE FUTURE." For the past several years the essay section has focused on specific technologies including digital television, "green" cars and radio frequency identification (RFID). This year the essays take a step back to look, very simply, not only at where we've been in terms of technological change, but where we may be heading in the years to come. Each month's essay will also include a vignette of one inventor/invention, a short profile of something you may be seeing or hearing more of in the years to come. The summer schedule is follows: • July - Where We've Been (Essay Archives) • August - Where We're Going (Essay Archives) • September - A Brief Introduction to the Future (Current) September 2007 - Putting the Pieces Together: Technological Change - A Brief Introduction to the Future "If one looks at previous episodes of technological transformation, it becomes clear how crucial it is to ask: Who gets to define what the transformation will involve? . . . Technological change is never foreordained, the future never foreclosed. Real choices need to be identified, studied, acted upon . . . The acceptance of any technology requires the building of a broad social coalition that agrees to support its introduction and use. Often there are alternative devices and systems, newer ones and older ones, jockeying for this support. The test of whether or not a technology is acceptable is whether enough people agree that 'Yes, the new methods make sense.' " (n1) ". . . No development is inevitable." (n2) Several years ago a cartoon appeared in a local paper poking fun at humans and technological change. The cartoon showed a man in a two-seater personal bubble-top spacecraft, ala "The Jetsons," briefcase in the back seat and presumably flying off to work. He'd set his cup of coffee on the roof of the vehicle, heading off with it remaining outside. The caption read "Technology advances; people stay the same." (n3) And so it has been throughout most of the period and with a majority of the technologies which have been discussed in this essay section to date. From genetically modified foods and digital television to computers and cell phones, the technologies may have changed how people live, work or interact, but they have done little or nothing to change humans themselves. In July, the series began with a look at the accelerating pace of technological change. From air travel in the 1940s to cell phones and the internet in the 1980s and 1990s, the rate at which new technologies have been adopted in the United States has continued to increase. "It took 55 years for the automobile to spread to a quarter of the country, 35 years for the telephone, 22 years for the radio, 16 years for the personal computer, 13 years for the cell phone and only seven years for the Internet. Because technologies are adopted so quickly, it has become more important than ever for a country's industries to be at the cutting edge - there's simply much less catch-up time [which can spell the difference between losing profits or losing an industry]." (n4) This type of growth is said to be exponential as opposed to linear. Instead of a gradual, steady and predictably incremental increase over many years, the growth goes from being almost imperceptible to doubling or tripling in very short periods of time. One of this country's most recognized inventors, writers and thinkers on the impacts of technological change, Ray Kurzweil, uses the following parable in his book The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology to illustrate exponential growth:
Photograph © Dorothy A. Birsic 1991 In August, the series continued with a look at a few other changes taking place globally. The essay also focused on a report of the National Academies entitled "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future." Given the rate of technological change, especially in cutting-edge industries both here and abroad, the report addressed "the possibility that our lack of preparation will reduce the ability of the United States to compete in such a [rapidly changing] world." (n6) Congress and the President already have begun addressing what the report referred to as a "collection of problems reveal[ing] a disturbing picture - a recurrent pattern of short-term thinking and insufficient long-term investment" (n7) in the U.S. In August of this year, President Bush signed Public Law 110-69 (see also H.R. 2272), the America COMPETES Act. The Semiconductor Industry Association calls the legislation "the most significant commitment to U.S. technological and economic leadership in 20 years." (n8) Two other proposed pieces of legislation stemming directly from recommendations in the report include H.R. 362, or "The 10,000 Teachers, 10 Million Minds . . ." science and math scholarship act, and H.R. 363, the "Sowing the Seeds Through Science and Engineering Research Act." In one other section of the report, the authors also caution that, "The danger exists that Americans may not know enough about science, technology or mathematics to significantly contribute to or fully benefit from the knowledge-based society that is already taking shape around us. Moreover, most of us do not have enough understanding of the importance of those skills to encourage our children to study those subjects - both for their career opportunities and for their general benefit." (n9) But why the urgency when so much of the future may sound to some like science fiction as much as science fact? Technological Change and the "Singularity" Step back once again to the notion of accelerating technological change and exponential growth. A number of future thinkers and scientists "believe machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence within a few decades, leading to what's come to be called the Singularity." (n10). Although there isn't any precise definition of the term in its non-mathematical sense, many define it "as a future time when societal, scientific and economic change is so fast we cannot even imagine what will happen from our present perspective," or the "time when technological change will be at its fastest." (n11) Many disagree on whether or not such a time will occur. Those who write on the subject such as Kurzweil place "the Singularity" not 100 years in the future but rather within our children's or grandchildren's lifetimes. In recent testimony before Congress, Kurzweil explained that in his view, "It is not the case that we will experience 100 years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at today's rate of progress . . .). (n12) Kurzweil and others point to rapid changes in several industries which will form the basis for the suggested phenomenon: Information Technology/Computers, Biotechnology/Genetics, Robotics and Nanotechnology. While most people, at least on a conceptual level, might have at least some basic grasp of the meaning of the first three, it is less likely that those same people could come up with a precise, informed definition of what is generally expected to be one of the most important and transformational technologies of the future: nanotechnology. The following are two quotes from recent Congressional testimony concerning nanotechnology:
What is Nanotechnology? A concise definition of nanotechnology is that it is "the science of manipulating and characterizing matter at the atomic and molecular level." (n15) Another description of the term assigns it two primary meanings: "1) new science and technology that takes advantage of properties operating at the nanoscale, and 2) building with atomic precision through the use of molecular machine systems. The first refers to developments occuring today; the second to an ambitious technological goal at least a decade off." (n16). Funding for the U.S. National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) was announced by President Clinton in 2000, and the NNI is "a mechanism, mandated at the highest levels of government, for the coordination of federal research interests in nanotechnology." (n17). Funding for the NNI has grown from $464 million in FY 2001 to about $1.1 billion in FY 2005. (n18). It is a complicated subject, and those wishing to learn more about nanotechnology and the NNI can visit the NNI website at www.nano.gov. Other informational sites will be included in the "Links" section at the end of the essay. One word of caution - although the number of products on the market claiming to incorporate some type of nanotechnology has now topped 200 (n19), they are nothing like the future products of nanotechnology which some scientists envision to be created, molecule by molecule, from scratch. The products available today, however, "all have one thing in common: their "nano" components have not undergone thorough safety tests." (n20) As with other budding industries, regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency are still determining methods for the evaluation of the safety of products containing nanomaterials. "While few agree on how to efficiently determine the toxicity of nanoparticles, or how to regulate them, nearly everyone agrees on the urgency of quickly tackling both questions." (n21) Technological Change a Little Closer to Home Although funded by more than a billion dollars in U.S. public funds, nanotechnology is still an enterprise which, as per the "Gathering Storm" report "is mostly hidden from public view." (n22) Research is conducted primarily at the University centers and government laboratories supported by the NNI, and at private companies whose work is generally not in the public eye on a daily basis. On the other hand, there are many products and services consumers can expect to see in an increasingly linked and digital world. The year 2009 will bring the finalization of the transition to digital television in the United States (see the September 2005 and June 2006 HDTV essays). It is likely that the digital convergence between the information, communication and entertainment industries will continue (see the July/August 2006 VOIP essay), and the number of consumers using high-speed (broadband) networks will continue to increase. This will further the path toward the advent of pervasive wireless and computing networks - "in which everything from your car to your coffee cup 'talks' to other devices in an attempt to make your life run more smoothly." (n23). Some researchers see a "not-too-distant day when radio frequency identification (RFID) tags (see the September 2006 RFID essay) embedded in merchandise call your cell phone to alert you to sales, cars talk to each other to avoid collisions, and elderly people carry heart and blood-pressure monitors that can call a doctor during a medical emergency." (n24). By one estimate, the standardization of communication protocols that could allow Bluetooth-equipped devices, cell phone, Wi Fi products and RFID tags to easily communicate could be as close as five years away. (n25) As mentioned in the August 2007 essay, technologies and practices designed to assitst in mitigating the effects of climate change will continue to be developed. Some which have been mentioned as being available by the year 2030 include: carbon capture and storage (see the 2005 "Green Cars" essays), advanced renewable energies (including tidal and wave energy), new solar concentrators/cells, higher-efficiency aircraft, advanced hybrids and electic vehicles with better batteries, improvements in crop yields in agriculture, and biocovers/biofilters, among others. (n26) For consumers, a variety of publications from Time and Business Week to Wired and Scientific American, regularly carry articles outlining the top technological trends, inventions or ideas of a given year. For example, the November 13 2006 issue of Time magazine includes a special 48-page section on the Best Inventions of 2006. Among the products included are ones as diverse as a $100,000 Tesla sports car which runs on a lithium-ion battery (www.teslamotors.com), a mixed-breed (not genetically-engineered) hypo-allergenic cat (www.allerca.com), and a water-harvesting machine which can pull up to 500 gallons of drinkable water per day out of thin air (www.aquasciences.com).
Photograph "Debate" © 2007 Dorothy A. Birsic Southern California residents for the first time this year will also be able to attend Wired Magazine's Next Fest (see box below), billed as the magazine's version of a "new world's fair" of innovative products and technologies. One of the products on the Time list will also be included at the Next Fest. It is the "Hug Shirt," (www.cutecircuit.com) a wearable high-tech garment that simulates a hug from a loved one. According to the product description, "When a friend sends you a virtual hug, your cell phone notifies the shirt wirelessly via Bluetooth. The shirt then recreates that person's distinctive cuddle, replicating his or her warmth, pressure, duration and even heartbeat." (n27) Wearable Technology and Beyond In the near future, wearable technology embedded in clothing or glasses may become commonplace. As the Singularity nears, some predict that the changes taking place through biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics and other technologies may go so far as to blur the distinction between man and machine. Shortly after then-President Clinton announced the NNI in 1990, Sun Microsystems co-founder and Chief Scientist Billy Joy published a long essay in Wired magazine warning of the potential dangers of some of the new technologies including nanotechnology. That now well-known cover story, entitled "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," can be viewed at www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html. Although his comments provoked widespread discussion, they also gave more credence to the notion of the Singularity (n28) and the many possible changes coming in the years ahead. Francis Fukuyama, author of the book Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution, says that, "For all our obvious faults, we humans are miraculously complex products of a long evolutionary process - products whose whole is much more than the sum of our parts . . . Modifying any one of our key characteristics inevitably entails modifying a complex, interlinked package of traits, and we will never be able to anticipate the outcome." (n29). Whether the future will resemble just a more complex version of the world we know today or a science fiction novel beyond the realm of imagination remains to be seen. Consider yourself introduced. Where you choose to take the relationship is up to you. Thank you for vising the Essays page this month. A brief September inventor vignette is included below, along with information about the Wired Next Fest which will be held at the Los Angeles Convention Center. The footnotes, bibliography and links list can be found by clicking on one of the words or scrolling down the page.
FOOTNOTES - The following are the footnotes indicated in the text in parentheses with the letter "n" and a number. If you click the asterisk at the end of the footnote, it will take you back to the paragraph in which the citation was located. n1 - Winner, Langdon, statement in The Societal Implications of Nanotechnology, Hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, 1st Session, April 9, 2003, Serial No. 108-13, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003, p. 57 (*) n2 - Hayek, Friedrich A. von, The Road to Serfdom, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1944, p. 1, or Fiftieth Anniversary Edition, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994, p. 3 (*) n3 - Rubin, Leigh, RUBES, Los Angeles: Creators Syndicate, 1997 (*) n4 - Wallace-Wells, Benjamin, "Off Track," Washington Monthly, Vol. 37, No. 3, March 2005, p. 33 (*) n5 - Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, New York: Viking, 2005, pp. 7 - 8 (*) n6 - Committee for Prospering in the 21st Century: An Agenda for American Science and Technology, Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National
Academy of Engineering and The Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press. Please note: in the preparation of this study, two versions of
the report were used. Both citations will be included here, and the other notes concerning the study will indicate page numbers for the information cited as found in both versions. n8 - Semiconductor Industry Association, Press Release available at www.sia-online.org/pre_release.cfm?ID=448 (viewed August 31, 2007) (*) n9 - Rising Above the Gathering Storm . . ., online pdf version p. 180 (*) n10 - Bell, James John, "Exploring the Singularity," The Futurist, May-June 2003, p. 19 (*) n12 - Kurzweil, Ray, statement in The Societal Implications of Nanotechnology, Hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 108th Congress, 1st Session, April 9, 2003, Serial No. 108-13, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003, p. 22 (*) n13 - Fancher, Michael, statement in The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Review and Outlook, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Research, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 109th Congress, 1st Session, May 18, 2005, Serial No. 109-15, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2005, p. 43 (*) n14 - Societal Implications of Nanotechnology, pp. 4-5 (*) n16 - Peterson, Christine L., "Nanotechnology: From Feynman to the Grand Challenge of Molecular Manufacturing," IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 23, No. 4, Winter 2004, p. 10 (*) n17 - Committee to Review the National Nanotechnology Initiative, National Research Council, A Matter of Size: Triennial Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative: 2006, available online at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11752 (viewed September 2007) (*) n18 - The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Review and Outlook, p. 3 (*) n19 - Ross, Philip E., "Tiny Toxins?" Technology Review, Vol. 109, No. 2, May/June 2006, p. 66 (*) n22 - Rising Above the Gathering Storm . . ., pre-publication version p. 128 and online pdf version pp. 42 - 43 (*) n23 - Savage, Neil, "Pervasive Wireless," Technology Review, Vol. 9, No. 1, March/April 2006, p. 68 (*) n26 - Hopkin, Michael, "Climate Panel Offers Grounds for Optimism," Nature, Vol. 447, Issue 7141, 10 May 2007, p. 121 (*) n27 - Caplan, Jeremy, Grossman, Lev, Hamilton, Anita, Murray Buechner, Maryanne, Park, Alice, and Rothman, Wilson, "Best Inventions of 2006: The Best of the Rest," Time, Vol. 168, No. 2, November 13, 2006, p. 80 (*) n29 - Fukuyana, Francis, "Transhumanism," Foreign Policy, Issue 144, September/October 2004, p. 43 (*) LINKS LIST - The first group of links are the ones which have been included in the September 2007 essay. The second group of links are links to sites for additional information on some of the topics discussed in the essay.
BIBLIOGRAPHY - The following is the combined bibliography for the essays and inventor vignette section. "10,000 Teachers, 10 Million Minds . . . K-12 Science and Math Education, and Science and Math Scholarship Act," Report to accompany H.R. 362, U.S. House of Representatives, 110th Congress, 1st Session, April 16, 2007, Serial No. 110-85, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2007. "Sowing the Seeds Through Science and Engineering Research Act," Report to accompany H.R. 363, U.S. House of Representatives, 110th Congress, 1st Session, March 8, 2007, Serial No. 110-39, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2007. Bell, James John, "Exploring the Singularity," The Futurist, May-June 2003, pp. 18 - 24. Bennett, Michael, "Does Existing Law Fail to Address Nanotechnoscience?" IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 23, No. 4, Winter 2004, pp. 27 - 32. Caplan, Jeremy, Grossman, Lev, Hamilton, Anita, Murray Buechner, Maryanne, Park, Alice, and Rothman, Wilson, "Best Inventions of 2006: The Best of the Rest," Time, Vol. 168, No. 2, November 13, 2006, pp. 66 - 101. Committee for Prospering in the 21st Century: An Agenda for American Science and Technology, Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and The Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Washington D.C.: National Academies Press, 2007. Also pdf online version at http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11463, viewed July/August 2007. Committee to Review the National Nanotechnology Initiative, National Research Council, A Matter of Size: Triennial Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative: 2006, available online at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11752 (viewed September 2007). Fukuyama, Francis. Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2002. Fukuyama, Francis, "Transhumanism," Foreign Policy, Issue 144, September/October 2004, p. 42 - 43 Gordon, Bart, "U.S. Competitiveness: The Education Imperative," Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXIII, No. 3, Spring 2007, pp. 31 - 36. Hayek, Friedrich A. von. The Road to Serfdom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1944, or Fiftieth Anniversary Edition, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994 Hopkin, Michael, "Climate Panel Offers Grounds for Optimism," Nature, Vol. 447, Issue 1741, 10 May 2007, pp. 120 - 121. Kashahara, Yutaka and Yamada, Keiji, "NEC's Activities for Developing Business Solutions and Technology Needed for a Ubiquitous Society," NEC Journal of Advanced Technology, Vol. 1, No. 3, Summer 2004, pp. 167 - 175. Kurzweil, Ray, "Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine-Human Intelligence," The Futurist, Vol. 40, No. 2, March-April 2006, pp. 39 - 46. Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking, 2005. Peterson, Christine L., "Nanotechnology: From Feynman to the Grand Challenge of Molecular Manufacturing," IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 23, No. 4, Winter 2004, pp. 9 - 15. Ross, Philip E., "Tiny Toxins?" Technology Review, Vol. 109, No. 2, May/June 2006, p. 66 - 69. Rubin, Leigh, RUBES, Los Angeles: Creators Syndicate, 1997. Savage, Neil, "Pervasive Wireless," Technology Review, Vol. 9, No. 1, March/April 2006, p. 68. Semiconductor Industry Association, Press Release available at www.sia-online.org/pre_release.cfm?ID=448 (viewed August 31, 2007). U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Science, Technology and Global Competitiveness, 109th Congress, 1st Session, October 20, 2005, Serial No. 109-27, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2005. U.S. House of Representatives, Nanotechnology: Where Does the U.S. Stand?, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Research, Committee on Science, 109th Congress, 1st Session, June 29, 2005, Serial No. 109-21, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2005 U.S. House of Representatives, Research on the Environmental and Safety Impacts of Nanotechnology: What are the Federal Agencies Doing?, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Research, Committee on Science, 109th Congress, 1st Session, May 18, 2005, Serial No. 109-15, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2005 U.S. House of Representatives, The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Review and Outlook, Hearing before the Committee on Science, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, September 21, 2006, Serial No. 109-63, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2006. U.S. House of Representatives, The Societal Implications of Nanotechnology, Hearing before the Committee on Science, 108th Congress, 1st Session, April 9, 2003, Serial No. 108-13, Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003. Wallace-Wells, Benjamin, "Off Track," Washington Monthly, Vol. 37, No. 3, March 2005, pp. 26 - 33. Wilsdon, James, "Nanotechnology, Risk and Uncertainty," IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 23, No. 4, Winter 2004, pp. 16 - 21. To return to the top of the page, click here. To return to the essay archives, click here.
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"A lake owner wants to stay at home to tend to the lake's fish and make certain that the lake itself will not become covered
with lily pads, which are said to double their number every few days. Month after month he patiently waits, yet only tiny patches of lily pads can be discerned, and they don't seem to be expanding in any noticeable way. With the lily pads covering less than one percent of the lake, the owner figures
that it's safe to take a vacation and leaves with his family. When he returns a few weeks later, he's shocked to discover that the entire lake has become covered with the pads, and his fish have perished. By doubling their number every few days, the last seven doublings were sufficient to extend the
pads' coverage to the entire lake (seven doublings extended their reach 128-fold). This is the nature of exponential growth." 
